On a personal note Ed Hoskins

Ed Hoskins had an educational grounding in science subjects. He qualified both as a Dentist with distinction at Guys in London in 1962 and as an Architect in Cambridge in 1969 with a double first.

Having worked within a research group at the Architecture school, involved with the quantifiable aspects of Building and Planning, Ed was responsible for setting up and running the spin-off company stemming from that group, Applied Research of Cambridge Ltd. In 1969 it was one of the earliest spin-off companies of the “Cambridge Phenomenon”.  Ed ran the company for sixteen years till its sale to its American distributor in 1985.  By then ARC had a staff of 150 worldwide with particular success in USA, Australia and Japan.

The company produced Computer Aided Design software products for Architecture and Engineering and for Geographic Information Systems. The markets for its software were world-wide.

Since retirement Ed has taken an interest in the Global Warming / Climate Change question and has published several notes quantifying various aspects of the questions raised and remedies being pursued.

He uses his abilities in business planning and presentation to make contributions that are hopefully useful and accessible at a layman’s / politicians’ level.

This note makes use of illustrations and references much of Ed’s earlier analyses and may make a useful contribution to thinking about future policies.

Ed’s views are not politically correct.

Even so, they raise questions which should be fully addressed when making government policy towards UK Energy and Climate Change by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy.

On being a denier

With my views I would be derided by Catastrophic Global Warming Alarmists as a “denier” or even as a “deplorable denier”, but:

  • I do not deny that climate changes.  It does it all the time and can go either way warmer or colder.
  • I do not deny that the previous millennium 1000 AD – 2000 AD was the coldest millennium of the current benign Holocene epoch.
  • I do not deny that the early Holocene period was warmer than now.
  • I do not deny that the early Holocene had roughly flat temperatures including its notable “Holocene Climate Optimum”.
  • I do not deny that the millennia of the recent Holocene since a tipping point about 3 thousand years ago at about 1000 BC has been progressively cooler.
  • I do not deny that and the planetary mechanics of the Solar system has a major long term influence on the World’s climate.
  • I do not deny that variations in the output of the Sun at its full spectrum of visible and non-visible wavelengths has a significant and often unappreciated influence on the World’s climate.
  • I do not deny that the earlier temperature peaks in the Minoan, Roman, Medieval and Modern warm periods of the Holocene epoch have each been successively colder.
  • I do not deny that the Holocene climate “optimum”, around 7-6000 BC, was some 3°C warmer than the depths of the Little Ice Age.
  • I do not deny that the world got warmer in the latter half of the 20th century, just as it did in the earlier half of the 20th century, at about the same rate and to about the same degree:  at that earlier time there was no possibility of any influence from Man-made CO2.
  • I do not deny that as the world has gotten significantly warmer since the Little Ice Age, and that such warming has produced a more congenial and beneficial climate for man-kind and the biosphere.
  • I do not deny that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  But the warming effect of CO2 is minor and the truly minisciule contribution of Man-made CO2, is one of several warming influences the most important of which are transfer of CO2 from the oceans, water vapour and clouds.
  • I do not deny that some 77% of the effectiveness of CO2 (up to ~200ppmv) as a greenhouse gas is essential of the survival of plant life and consequently for the survival of all life earth.
  • I do not deny that the influence of CO2 on temperature diminishes with increasing concentrations and is now at ~400ppmv.  At that level some 87% of its effectiveness as warming greenhouse gas is already expended.
  • I do not deny that man, by burning fossil fuels, is contributing to a certain extent to the increase of atmospheric levels of CO2.
  • I do not deny that the output of Man-made CO2 is inevitably going to rise until the underdeveloped world, still about half the world’s population, has universal access to satisfactory electricity supply and other life enhancing affordable energy sources.
  • I do not deny that Man-kind pollutes the environment and that he does do significant toxic damage to the planet.
  • I do not deny that real pollution from Man-kind’s damaging activities poisoning the planet should be tackled aggressively.

But from my examination of the Catastrophic Man-made Global Warming / Climate Change question I do deny the following:

  • I do deny that atmospheric CO2 from any source is a dangerous pollutant:  it is the foundation of photosynthesis – thus even at its presently low concentration of atmospheric CO2 is the foundation for all life on earth.
  • I do deny that CO2 is currently at dangerous levels in the atmosphere:  at the current ~400 ppm it is at a low level compared to the historic past of our planet the original evolution of plant life.
  • I do deny that Man-made CO2 can ever be the most significant control knob for world climate.
  • I do deny that any further moderate warming within normal limits, (+2°C or more) would be a global catastrophe.
  • I do deny however that an additional +2°C could ever be attained by the emissions of Man-made CO2 from burning fossil fuels, because of the limiting and radical diminution of the Greenhouse effect that applies to increasing concentrations of CO2 into the future.
  • I do deny that any continuing warming is significantly enhanced by massive positive feed-backs that radically enhance the warming that could be produced by higher CO2 concentrations.
  • I do deny that there are major worldwide negative and catastrophic risks caused by Man-made Warming / Climate Change.


I well recall voicing the opinion in a well-researched paper long ago that information about pollution levels in London was being misrepresented and exaggerated by Green activists. However that published opinion quickly elicited threats of personal violence and death.


“Believers” in the “Green religion”,  although many are well-meaning at heart, are not necessarily nice people.

They are rarely tolerant and certainly not open to debate.

I am old enough to remember London’s pea soup fogs in the 1950’s: that was real atmospheric pollution.  The pollution problem was solved in the UK by the Clean Air Act and since those times real air pollution in the UK and throughout Europe has radically improved and is no longer a significant problem especially since unleaded motor fuels have been introduced.

CO2 emissions were not the cause of the “London peasoupers”:  the cause was sulphur dioxide and soot in the atmosphere combined with Autumnal atmospheric inversions.  Neither are CO2 emissions responsible for the gross air pollution in parts of China.

The characterisation of Man-made CO2 as a pollutant is untenable.  

Any added CO2 in the atmosphere is enhancing the fertility of all plant life and should be welcomed.

It is not to be feared in any way.  

CO2 levels have been ten times the current levels with no excessive warming and the outcome was just more luxuriant plant life worldwide.

Screenshot 2018-12-17 at 11.57.24.png

The official publication of “the hockey stick” temperature graph, shown below, convinced the world that there had to be a real Global Warming problem that should be addressed.  And that could be achieved by reducing  the CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels by Western nations.

It certainly convinced me initially.

So I graphed the original IPCC published data from 1990 against the “Michael Mann Hockey Stick”. The comparison shown above was stark.  The intentional deception eliminated the previously well understood Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.

Screenshot 2020-12-29 at 07.48.29.png

I just hate being lied to !

Added to the Mann graphic was

“Mike’s Nature Trick to hide the decline”

the original data showed a “decline” and that had to be “hidden”.

The process involved was well explained by Prof Richard Muller in the is short extract from a presentation in October 2010 before his institution of the BEST temperature study.

So as a hobby, I began some exploration starting with the Professor David MacKay’s book Sustainable energy without the hot air.  This book, using as he says “numbers not adjectives”, debunks all the common assertions about the efficacy of weather dependent Renewable energy.

Although he believed that CO2 is contributing significantly to “Global Warming / Climate Change”,  David MacKay had at long last produced a great deal of quantified common sense on the subject of the efficacy of renewable energy.


This lead me on to a wider exploration of the question of Man-made Climate Change / Anthropogenic Global Warming / Catastrophic Climate Change, etc.

Very sadly Professor Mackay died prematurely in April 2016.  In spite of the fact that he was a green supporter and agreed with de-carbonisation of the Western economies he was devoutly rational preferring mathematics to Green religious conjecture.  And I have been trying to look at these questions, just like him often as “back of the envelope calculations”.

Overall the late Professor David Mackay said it all in his final interview:  ie that by ignoring simple arithmetic, the use of Weather Dependent Renewable energy to try to power a developed country is

“an appalling delusion”

and he eventually admits that in the UK

“there really is no point in having wind power or solar power in the UK”


and later in the same interview he said that:

“if it is possible to get through the winter with low CO2 Nuclear and possibly with Carbon Capture and Storage there is no point in having any Wind or Solar power in the UK generation mix”

But it seems that having bought into the assumption that Catastrophic Man-made Global Warming is an immediate and existential threat that Government elites when faced with these simple but devastatingly wasteful calculations assume a position of “wilful ignorance”, and a stance of “don’t confuse me with the facts, we are saving the world“.

However I would entirely disagree David Mackay’s view that Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS, is an essential technology to be developed in order to avoid CO2 emissions.  I would rather characterise CCS as:

“an expensive and energy wasteful way of throwing away comparatively small quantities of useful plant food”.

Nonetheless I would hope that these notes follow his lead in as much they attempt to quantify and thus question many of the aspects of the Green dogma and the assertions of the possibility of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming / Climate Change just with my simple mathematics.

As my exploration has progressed I have become increasingly sceptical about:

  • the promotion of probably dubious science
  • the withholding of crucial contrarian data
  • the evasion of proper “scientific method”
  • the political agendas that have invested so much into confirming the assertion of Catastrophic / Dangerous Man-made Global Warming from the emission of CO2 from burning fossil fuels.

The outcome has been a world-wide  Global Warming / Climate Change policy fiasco.  The irrelevant fiasco continues.  I have therefore become a devout “denier”.

Indeed I do deny that:

  • anything truly adverse is happening in the climate, except the inevitable progress towards the ending of our current benign Holocene interglacial period
  • man-kind as a whole can anything about it, except cause major wasted economic resource mainly at expense for the developed world.

So, from being a credulous Believer I have become a Sceptic and thus would now be branded as a “Denier” or better still a “Deplorable Denier”.

Introduction to edmhdotme  pages

This group of illustrated posts poses some of the central questions and solutions about the Man-made Global warming assertion.  It also questions the due diligence with which they have been confirmed as irrefutable.

Man-made Global Warming Advocates and Alarmists only ever emphasise the catastrophe that awaits the world in the future as a result of Man-made Global warming.

But the obverse is more likely to be true.

Increased levels of CO2 and a rather warmer, probably wetter, climate within natural limits will continue to bring real benefits to the biosphere and mankind just as they did in the previous 20th century and during the warmer periods of our current benign Holocene epoch.

The world could well survive having additional areas available for viable, well fertilised, agriculture.

Instead the short spurt in global warming at the end of the last century has given rise to and has been exaggerated as the

“Great Global Warming Scare”

However this has been:

  • an entirely natural process
  • well within normal limits
  • fortunately truly beneficial.

Economic studies now show that there would still be net benefit to the biosphere and mankind in warming up to a further 2°C.  See

Click to access climate_change.pdf

But further warming may be not now be occurring at all.  So it has become clear that any attempts at man-made climate control by reduction of CO2 emissions to reduce global temperatures are ineffective and will be entirely futile.

The UN IPCC, because their predictions are not now supported in nature have been forced to change their nomenclature from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”.  They have simply extrapolated the warming that certainly occurred towards the end of the 20th century as if it was going to continue unabated.  However there has been a hiatus in their anticipated inexorable world temperature increase for the last 20 years.

So Climate can Change both ways either warmer or colder.

But now any adverse weather event, even cold events, such as the recent winters in the Eastern United States, can be ascribed to “Climate Change” by alarmists and blamed on the CO2 production of Man-kind.

Nonetheless all Warmist policy recommendations are only ever intended to control excessive Global Overheating by the attempted reduction of Man-made Carbon Dioxide, CO2 emissions from the developed world.

This has to be the BLINDING and ILLOGICAL PARADOX of the Catastrophic Alarmist / Warmist position.   

Control of Man-made CO2 can do nothing to ameliorate a coming cooling world.

But an excellent way to undermine Western economies is to render their power generation unreliable and expensive.  That objective of Green thinking is progressively being achieved by Government policy but without popular voter mandate throughout the Western world.

This site provides a series of short illustrated and referenced articles on the subject of “Global Warming” and / or “Climate Change”.  The notes are intended to work at the level of an intelligent layman with graphics to clearly illustrate the points involved.  These are the references:

18 thoughts on “On a personal note Ed Hoskins

  1. Pingback: Ed Hoskins: Capital Cost and Production Effectiveness of Renewable Energy in Europe – the Data | Tallbloke's Talkshop

  2. sonja Christiansen

    I agree…..but this leaves the fundamental question for social scientists and especially political ones: Who gains from the dangerous- man-made warming idea that can be-defeated by ‘decarbonisation’? Why the CO2 hypothesis been picked with so much enthusiasm by the global and assorted national ‘elites’ ? These elites are not stupid and probably know all that there is a lot of doubt. Political scientists should ask who benefits from the climate threat (warming- never cooling), and then have a closer look at the science debate and how this is funded. Very few people do so. I wonder why? I have written on this subject for years, with very little support. There is a ridiculous hierarchy of esteem in our research and education systems: C02 and C can be measured and even ‘captured’. and , in places, replaced.

  3. Dr Roger Higgs, DPhill (Oxford 1986, geology)

    Ed, thank you for your superb website. I completely agree with your views on the CO2 delusion.

    Please see the following contribution, which attempts to prove to scientists and non-scientists alike that CO2 is harmless (in fact essential for all life) …


    I posted this item on ResearchGate two months ago (April 2019); it is proving to be quite popular (4,000 reads, climbing rapidly).

    Please keep up the great work. We are going to win.

    Best wishes from Roger

  4. nickreality65

    The GreenHouse Effect Anti-Theory

    By reflecting away 30% of the incoming solar energy the atmosphere/albedo makes the earth cooler than it would be without the atmosphere much like that reflective panel behind a car’s windshield.
    Greenhouse theory has it wrong.

    The non-radiative processes of a contiguous participating media, i.e. atmospheric molecules, render ideal black body LWIR from the surface impossible. The 396 W/m^2 upwelling from the surface is a “what if” theoretical calculation without physical reality. (refer to: TFK_bams09)
    Greenhouse theory has it wrong.

    Without the 396 W/m^2 upwelling there is no 333 W/m^2 GHG energy up/down/”back” loop to “warm” the earth. (refer to: TFK_bams09)
    Greenhouse theory has it wrong.

    Man caused climate change is negated by these three points. Hysterical speculations over sea levels, ice caps, glaciers, extreme weather, etc. are irrelevant noise.

    Zero greenhouse effect, Zero CO2 global warming and Zero man caused climate change.


    One popular geoengineering strategy proposed for countering imaginary global warming/climate change is through reducing net solar heating by increasing the earth’s albedo.

    This increase is accomplished by various physical methods, e.g. injecting reflective aerosols into the atmosphere, spraying water vapor into the air to enhance marine cloud brightening, spreading shiny glass spheres around the poles with the goal of more reflection thereby reducing the net amount of solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere and surface and cooling the earth.

    More albedo and the earth cools.

    Less albedo and the earth warms.

    No atmosphere means no water vapor or clouds, ice, snow, vegetation, oceans and near zero albedo and much like the moon the earth bakes in that 394 K, 121 C, 250 F solar wind.

    These geoengineering plans rely on the atmosphere cooling the earth thereby exposing the error of greenhouse theory which says the atmosphere warms the earth and with no atmosphere the earth becomes a -430 F frozen ball of ice.

    Zero greenhouse effect, Zero CO2 global warming and Zero man caused climate change.

    Space – the Hotter Frontier

    One of the heated issues underlying greenhouse theory is whether space is hot or cold.

    Greenhouse theory says that without an atmosphere the earth would be exposed to a near zero outer space and become a frozen ice ball at -430 F, 17 K.

    Geoengineering techniques that increase the albedo, the ISS’s ammonia refrigerant air conditioners, an air conditioner in the manned maneuvering unit, space suits including thermal underwear with chilled water tubing, UCLA Diviner lunar data and Kramm’s models (Univ of AK) all provide substantial evidence that outer space is relatively hot.

    But outer space is neither hot nor cold.

    By definition and application temperature is a relative measurement of the molecular kinetic energy in a substance, i.e. solid, liquid, gas. No molecules (vacuum), no temperature. No kinetic energy (absolute zero), no temperature. In the void & vacuum of outer space the terms temperature, hot, cold are meaningless, like dividing by zero, undefined. Same reason there is no sound in space – no molecules.

    However, any substance capable of molecular kinetic energy (ISS, space walker, satellite, moon, earth) placed in the path of the spherical expanding solar photon gas at the earth’s average orbital distance will be heated per the S-B equation to an equilibrium temperature of: 1,368 W/m^2 = 394 K, 121 C, 250 F.

    Like a blanket held up between a camper and campfire the atmosphere reduces the amount of solar energy heating the terrestrial system and cools the earth compared to no atmosphere.

    This intuitively obvious as well as calculated and measured scientific reality refutes the greenhouse theory.

    Zero greenhouse effect, Zero CO2 global warming and Zero man caused climate change.


    Since the earth is actually hotter without an atmosphere, radiative greenhouse effect goes straight into the historical trash bin of failed theories and all the handwavium, pseudo-science, thermodynamic nonsense pretending to explain it follows close behind.

    If my anti-theorem is incorrect why so and how so, bring science.
    If my anti-theorem is correct contemplate the consequences.

    Nick Schroeder, BSME CU ’78, CO PE 22774

    1. JB Micawber

      Earth, unlike mammals, can only cool from radiation. Observational data shows the greenhouse gas blanket stopped all infrared radiation in both directions in 2010:
      “Fossil carbon dioxide drove Planet Ocean temperatures and ecosystem collapse sharply upwards post-2010 after cycling naturally for millennia”, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313376975, doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16471.88489.
      The authors quote the late great physicist Richard Feynman.
      “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool”.
      “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are, if it doesn’t agree with experiment it’s wrong”.
      Note this is about global warming that is 90% in the oceans moderated by basal is melt and formation in polar seawater.
      Predictions were for 4C above pre-industrial in 2019.
      Northern California saw 30% of mussels cooked from warm water and low tides.
      Alaska saw temperatures over 12C above pre-industrial.
      This is no time for what you believe or don’t.
      Stick to in situ data – admittedly scarce in the near-surface – and it is obvious why warming is beyond control…

      1. nickreality65

        Because of atmospheric molecules BB 396 from the surface is not possible. No 396, no 333 warning loop, no CAGW. Demonstrated by experiment. BB is only possible into vacuum.

        Sent from my iPhone


      2. amirlach

        “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are, if it doesn’t agree with experiment it’s wrong”.

        And all of the IPCC Model predictions were WRONG. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/19/an-animated-analysis-of-the-ipcc-ar5-graph-shows-ipcc-analysis-methodology-and-computer-models-are-seriously-flawed/ipcc-ar5draft-fig-1-4/

        AR6 is even further from reality. “But in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that “equilibrium climate sensitivity” has come in at 5°C or warmer. The only place warming is “out of control” is inside the failed models.”

        Observations show that the rebound in temperatures show no increase in the natural warming trend since the end of the “Little Ice Age” 1750.

        “It is also worth showing the Central England Temperature Record for the 40 years 1694-1733, long before SUVs, during which the temperature in most of England rose at a rate equivalent to 4.33 C°/century, compared with just 1.7 C°/century equivalent in the 40 years 1979-2018. Therefore, the current rate of warming is not unprecedented.”

  5. nickreality65


    Well, interesting, but let’s stick with the fundamental core concept.

    By reflecting 30% of the ISR the atmosphere cools the earth. Remove the atmosphere and the earth receives more kJ/h and gets warmer.

    RGHE theory postulates the exact opposite contrary to logic, observed ISS conditions and lunar data.

    No greenhouse effect, no greenhouse gas warming, no man caused climate change.

    All the rest is sound and fury signifying nothing.

  6. Jose from Spain.

    Brilliant work!. Thank you so much for trying to expose the Climate Mafia wrongdoings that are ruining the poor and middle classes in the western world in the name of the biggest fraud in human History.

  7. nickreality65

    There is no greenhouse effect.
    The atmosphere/albedo make the Earth cooler not warmer like that reflective panel propped on the dash.
    The GHG up/down welling “extra” energy loop does not exist.
    No RGHE, no GHG warming, no CO2/mankind global warming or climate change.

  8. Mike Furby

    Hi Ed
    I have just read your article on the NHS at The Daily Sceptic. What a surprise to see your name pop up!
    You may remember me from the ARC days, and subsequently with M O’N at Cadcorp.
    Skimming through your blog I find you and I are 100% on the same page with AGW, Brexit, NHS, etc.
    Many happy memories – I trust you are well – Kind regards from myself and Heather.


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