2022 Weather-Dependent “Renewables” in Germany, UK and France

Introduction

This post examines the Wind and Solar power performance based on hourly generation data in three major European nations over the year 2022:

Germany installed Weather-Dependent generation ~122GW
United Kingdom installed Weather-Dependent generation ~38GW
France installed Weather-Dependent generation ~33 GW.

By the end of 2022 these three nations with varying commitments to Green energy had installed almost 200 GW of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” producing ~42 GW of power output over the year resulting in an overall productivity – capacity level of 20.6%.

The overall nominal name plate value of these Weather-Dependent “Renewable” installations exceeded the the total power generated in the three nations, (by 7%), as an average value.

However the outcome of the massive German commitment to their Energiewende policies has meant that their nominal name plate value of “Renewables” was more than double of the total power production in Germany, exceeding the total power output by +124%. Even though 2022 was a productive year, (much better than 2021), for “Renewables” the resulting productivity – capacity of German Weather-Dependent “Renewables” only achieved ~17%.

For comparison the Weather-Dependent “Renewable” efforts in the UK exceeded the total UK power output by +30%. Even though 2022 was a productive year, (much better than 2021), for “Renewables” the resulting productivity – capacity of UK Weather-Dependent “Renewables” only achieved ~22.1%.

Nonetheless, both Germany and the UK are suffering significant power limitations in the current 2022-2023 winter as a result of their commitment to Weather-Dependent “Renewables”. These grid failures are the result of their long-term energy policies that have restricted and eliminated dependable fossil fuel power generation technologies. These power problems have only been exacerbated by the excuse of the conflict in the Ukraine.

France on the other hand has always been considered to be immune to power shortages because of its long-term Nuclear policy, but with a large proportion of their Nuclear fleet being off-line for maintenance and for some shortages of cooling water there are even concerns for French power supplies in the winter of 2022-2023.

prepared January 2023

Context

In the context of the EU(27)+UK, with a fleet of ~193GW Weather-Dependent “Renewables” as installed at the end of 2021 the three nations together represent:

Weather-Dependent Generation ~50%
Installed Onshore Wind Power ~50%
Installed Offshore Wind Power ~45%
Installed Solar PV Power ~70%
Population ~42%
Land area ~1.2 million sq kms ~26%
Land extent covering ~2000 kilometres: North – South : 1500 kilometres: East – West or ~3 million square kilometres land and sea.

Note: these installation values were published for the end of 2021 and do not yet include the installations made in the course of 2022. The hourly power production output values used are up to date to end 2022, so any higher values of extra installations over the 2022 year will somewhat reduce the overall reported productivity of the combined fleet of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” in the three Nations.

Together these three Nations are very different in their power generation technologies. Overall they may be reasonably representative of the Europe-wide commitment to Weather-Dependent “Renewables” generation and those effects can be presumed to roughly equivalent across the rest of the whole European (27)+UK Region.

These analyses are based on the assembly of hourly generation data for the three Nations. As compared to the wind drought year of 2021, 2022 was a relatively normal year for Weather-Dependent “Renewable” power production and certainly more productive than 2021.

The 2021 European Wind Drought and Weather-Dependent power generation

2022 Combined Power Generation DE UK FR

The combined hourly power production from all 3 Nations is shown below is shown below.

The proportions of power production by differing technologies in 2022 were as follows:

Nuclear power, mainly still from France in spite of 2022 maintenance problems ~40%
CO2 emitting technologies, including Biomass, with varying CO2 emissions levels ~31%
Weather-Dependent “Renewables” 22%.

The 193.3GW Weather-Dependent “Renewables” contributed just 41.8GW at a productivity / capacity of 20.6%. The nominal name-plate value of the installed fleet of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” at 193GW exceeded the combined power output in 2022 by +7%.

The year long variability of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” throughout 2022 is shown below.

The combined generation picture for Weather-Dependent “Renewables” Generation in the three Nations in 2022 over the

The comparison between summer and Winter output form Solar PV generators is shown below for January and July 2022. The annual productivity – capacity % achieved in 2022 was 13.5%.

The detailed variability of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” throughout 2022 is shown on a quarterly basis below.

2022 Power Generation in Germany

The German hourly power production is shown below.

The proportions of power production by differing technologies in 2022 were as follows:

exporting Wind power over production excess on occasions ~-6%
Nuclear power, now being extended, (all be it reluctantly), after the policy for its entire shutdown following the Fukushima earthquake , (an irrelevant risk in Germany), was temporarily rescinded. Nuclear output is still providing ~6% of German power, reduced from ~15% before Fukushima.
~50% of power generation is still from CO2 emitting technologies, including Natural Gas, Coal, Lignite and Biomass: these technologies have varying CO2 emissions impact: this is in spite of the last 10-20 years of aggressive the anti CO2 Energiewende policy.
31% of German power production remains from Coal, involving ~2/3 from Lignite. The use of Lignite for power production is now growing in response to the potential for Grid failure arising from restriction of Natural Gas supplies and the adverse Geopolitics of the war in Ukraine.
Weather-Dependent “Renewables” contribute ~39% but 6% of that Wind Power output was surplus to German requirements on occasions and has to be shed wastefully overseas, (normally at a loss).

The 122.6GW Weather-Dependent “Renewables” contributed just 21.0GW at a productivity – capacity of 17.1%. As a result of the long-term German Energiewende policy the nominal name-plate value of the installed fleet of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” exceeded the total German power output in 2022 by +124%, leading to wasteful power shedding on occasions.

The combined generation picture for Weather-Dependent “Renewables” Generation in the Germany in 2022 is shown below.

The detailed variability of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” throughout 2022 is shown on a quarterly basis below.

The actual productivity achieved by the Weather-dependent “Renewables” in Germany in 2022 is shown below. In 2022 German offshore wind power performed particularly well with Onshore wind power performing at about half that rate. Solar power was consistently in the region of ~10% productivity.

2022 Power Generation in United Kingdom

The UK hourly power production is shown below.

The proportions of power production by differing technologies in 2022 were as follows:

the annual exports of excesses of Wind power roughly matches the essential imports of power, (mainly from France and the Netherlands).
Nuclear power is still providing ~18% of UK power and long-term policies support further Nuclear developments including smaller scale modular reactors.
~51% of UK power is from CO2 emitting technologies, but primarily from low CO2 emitting Natural Gas, (half the CO2 emissions of Coal) .
The use of Coal is limited but the threat of Grid failure has meant that coal-fired plants are no longer being demolished but those that exist are being held in reserve.
Large scale use of costly imported Biomass has been instituted by Green policies.
Biomass primarily imported wood chips burnt at the Drax site provides ~6% of UK power. This imported Biomass results in ~3.5 times the CO2 emissions of Natural gas (now largely being imported as fracked gas from the USA). The policy of burning Biomass at Drax effectively negates all the CO2 emissions savings that might have made by all other Weather-Dependent “Renewables”installations in the UK. It is irrational to import fracked Natural gas a high cost when the availability of indigenous Gas production in the UK from fracking remains uninvestigated and unexploited by policy.

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/the-inconsistencies-in-green-policies-to-limit-co2-emissions/

Weather-Dependent “Renewables” contributed ~27% of UK power over the year.

The 37.5GW Weather-Dependent “Renewables” contributed just 8.3GW at a productivity / capacity of 22.1%. The nominal name-plate value of the installed fleet of UK Weather-Dependent “Renewables” exceeded the total United Kingdom power output in 2022 by ~+30%.

The generation picture for Weather-Dependent “Renewables” Generation in the United Kingdom in 2022.

The detailed variability of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” throughout 2022 is shown on a quarterly basis below.

The actual productivity achieved by the Weather-dependent “Renewables” in the United Kingdom in 2022 is shown below. Solar power was consistently in the region of 10% productivity.

2022 Power Generation in France

The French hourly power production is shown below.

The proportions of power production by differing technologies in 2022 were as follows:

in the past France exported a significant proportion its Nuclear power output mainly to the UK and Germany. However Nuclear maintenance problems and reduction of available of cooling water for inland generators has meant that on occasions in 2022 France was forced to import power from other Nations.
these essential imports amounted to ~3% of French power generation.
in 2022 French Nuclear power still provided ~68% of its generation, this proportion will probably grow again as the maintenance problems are rectified.
long-term policies supporting further Nuclear developments are planned.
France also has substantial hydro power installations amounting to ~8% of power generation.
~11% of French power is from CO2 emitting technologies, including mainly Natural Gas, and very limited use of Biomass and Coal.
France has made no major efforts to develop offshore Wind power.
Weather-Dependent “Renewables” contributed ~13% of French power over the year from the installed 33.3GW of Weather-Dependent generators.

The 33.3GW Weather-Dependent “Renewables” contributed just 6.3GW at a productivity / capacity of 18.8%. The nominal name-plate value of the installed fleet of French Weather-Dependent “Renewables” mounted to the total power output in 2022 by ~68%.

As France as a result of its long-term Nuclear policy has the lowest CO2 emissions/head of any developed Nation, any commitment to the use of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” would appear to be wasteful and irrelevant.

The generation picture for Weather-Dependent “Renewables” Generation in France in 2022.

The detailed variability of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” throughout 2022 is shown on a quarterly basis below.

The actual productivity achieved by the Weather-dependent “Renewables” in France in 2022 is shown below. Solar power was consistently in the region of 10% productivity.

Conclusions

The combined 2022 productivity achieved by the Weather-Dependent “Renewables” in the three Nations combined is shown below.

2022 was a productive year for both Wind and Solar power “Renewables”. Their European performance history over the last decade is shown below. However it seems that overall “Renewables” productivity remains in the region of ~20% with combined Wind power in the region of 25% and Solar PV power remaining just in excess of 10%.

Using hourly data, the graphic below gives a measure of the variability of Wind power in DE UK FR area by identifying the percentages of hourly time periods that produced power at less than indicated levels from the installed Wind power fleet.

For example, overall more than half the year, (54%), the combined fleet was producing less than 25% of its nominal combined name plate value and for about 10% of the year the whole fleet produced less than 10% of its name plate value.

The combined fleet production is generally less than individual Nations as a result of the cumulation of the differentials in Weather and Geography.

Would anyone sane buy a car costing about 10 times the normal price to buy and run, that can only work one day in five, when you never know which day that might be ? And then insist that its technology is the only way to power the whole economy.

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/3-graphs-say-it-all-for-renewables/