On a personal note

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On being a denier

With my views I would be derided by Catastrophic Global Warming Alarmists as a “denier” or even as a “deplorable denier”, but:

  • I do not deny that climate changes.  It does it all the time and can go either way warmer or colder.
  • I do not deny that the previous millennium 1000 AD – 2000 AD was the coldest millennium of the current benign Holocene epoch.
  • I do not deny that the early Holocene period had roughly flat temperatures including the “Holocene Climate Optimum”.
  • I do not deny that the millennia of the recent Holocene since a tipping point at about 1000 BC has been progressively cooler.
  • I do not deny that and the planetary mechanics of the Solar system has a major long term influence on the World’s climate.
  • I do not deny that variations in the output of the Sun at its full spectrum of visible and non-visible wavelengths has a significant and often unappreciated influence on the World’s climate.
  • I do not deny that the earlier temperature peaks in the Minoan, Roman, Medieval and Modern warm periods of the Holocene epoch have each been successively colder.
  • I do not deny that the Holocene climate “optimum”, around 7-6000 BC, was some 3°C warmer than the depths of the Little Ice Age.
  • I do not deny that the world got warmer in the latter half of the 20th century, just as it did in the earlier half of the 20th century, at about the same rate and to about the same degree:  at that earlier time there was no possibility of any influence from Man-made CO2.
  • I do not deny that as the world has gotten significantly warmer since the Little Ice Age, and that such warming has produced a more congenial and beneficial climate for man-kind and the biosphere.
  • I do not deny that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  But it’s effect is minor and CO2, particularly Man-made CO2, is one of several warming influences the most important of which are water vapour and clouds.
  •  I do not deny that the influence of CO2 on temperature diminishes with increasing concentrations and is now at ~400ppmv.  At that level some 87% of its effectiveness as warming greenhouse gas is already expended.I do not deny that some 77% of the effectiveness of CO2 (up to ~200ppmv) as a greenhouse gas is essential of the survival of plant life and thus all life earth.
  • I do not deny that man is contributing to an extent to the increase of atmospheric levels of CO2.
  • I do not deny that Man-made CO2 output is inevitably going to continue to rise until the underdeveloped world, still about half the world’s population, has universal access to electricity and other life enhancing affordable energy sources.
  • I do not deny that Man-kind pollutes the environment and that he does do significant toxic damage to the planet.
  • I do not deny that real pollution from Man-kind’s damaging activities should be tackled aggressively.

But from my examination of the Catastrophic Man-made Global Warming / Climate Change question I do deny the following:

  • I do deny that atmospheric CO2 from any source is a dangerous pollutant:  it is the foundation of photosynthesis – thus fortunately atmospheric CO2 is the foundation for all life on earth.
  • I do deny that CO2 is currently at dangerous levels in the atmosphere:  presently it is at rather low levels compared to the historic past of our planet and the needs and origins of plant life.
  • I do deny that Man-made CO2 can ever be the most significant control knob for world climate.
  • I do deny that any further moderate warming within normal limits, (+2°C or more) would be a global catastrophe.
  • I do deny however that an additional +2°C could ever be attained by the emissions of Man-made CO2 from burning fossil fuels, because of the limiting and radical diminution effect that applies to increasing concentrations of CO2 into the future.
  • I do deny that any additional warming is significantly enhanced by massive positive feed-backs that radically increase the effective warming that may be produced by higher CO2 concentrations.
  • I do deny that there are major worldwide negative and catastrophic risks caused by Man-made Warming / Climate Change.

 

Motivation

I well recall voicing the opinion in a well-researched paper long ago that information about pollution levels in London was being misrepresented and exaggerated by Green activists. However that published opinion quickly elicited threats of personal violence and death.

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/transport-and-health-in-london/

“Believers” in the Green religion, although many are well-meaning at heart, are not necessarily nice people.

They are rarely tolerant and certainly not open to debate.

I am old enough to remember London’s pea soup fogs in the 1950’s: that was real atmospheric pollution.  The pollution problem was solved in the UK by the Clean Air Act and since those times real air pollution in the UK and throughout Europe has radically improved and is no longer a significant problem especially since unleaded motor fuels have been introduced.

CO2 emissions were not the cause of the “peasoupers”:  the cause was sulphur dioxide and soot in the atmosphere combined with Autumnal atmospheric inversions.  Neither are CO2 emissions responsible for the gross air pollution in parts of China.

The characterisation of Man-made CO2 as a pollutant is untenable.  

Any added CO2 in the atmosphere is enhancing the fertility of all plant life and should be welcomed.

It is not to be feared in any way.  

CO2 levels have been ten times the current levels with no excessive warming and the outcome was just more luxuriant plant life worldwide.

 

The official publication of “the hockey stick” temperature graph, shown above, convinced the world that there had to be a real Global Warming problem that should be addressed.  And that could be achieved by reducing the use of fossil fuels by Western nations.

It certainly convinced me initially.

So I graphed the original IPCC published data from 1990 against the “Hockey Stick”. The comparison shown above was stark.  The intentional deception eliminated the previously well understood Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, .

Added to the Mann graphic was

“Mike’s Nature Trick to hide the decline”

that was not actually shown in the official data.

The process involved was well explained by Prof Richard Muller in the is short extract from a presentation in October 2010 before his institution of the BEST temperature study.

 

So as a hobby, I began some exploration starting with the Professor David MacKay’s book Sustainable energy without the hot air.  This book, using as he says “numbers not adjectives”, debunks all the common assertions about the efficacy of weather dependent Renewable energy.

Although he believed that CO2 is contributing significantly to “Global Warming / Climate Change”,  David MacKay had at long last produced a great deal of quantified common sense on the subject of the efficacy of renewable energy.

http://www.withouthotair.com/

This lead me on to a wider exploration of the question of Man-made Climate Change / Anthropogenic Global Warming / Catastrophic Climate Change, etc.

Very sadly Professor Mackay died prematurely in April 2016.  In spite of the fact that he was a green supporter and agreed with de-carbonisation of the Western economies he was devoutly rational preferring mathematics to Green religious conjecture.  And I have been trying to look at these questions, just like him  as “back of the envelope calculations”.

Accordingly one of his most recent quotes was that the attempt to try to power the UK economy with weather dependent Renewable Energy was as he said

“an appalling delusion”.

However I would entirely disagree with him that Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS, is an essential technology to be developed in order to avoid CO2 emissions.  I would rather characterise CCS as “an expensive way of throwing away comparatively small quantities of useful plant food”.

Nonetheless I would hope that these notes follow his lead in as much they attempt to quantify and thus question many of the aspects of the Green dogma and the assertions of the possibility of CatastrophicAnthropogenic Global Warming / Climate Change just with simple mathematics.

As my exploration has progressed I have become increasingly sceptical about:

  • the promotion of probably dubious science
  • the withholding of crucial contrarian data
  • the evasion of proper “scientific method”

the political agendas that have invested so much into confirming the assertion of Catastrophic / Dangerous Man-made Global Warming from the emission of CO2 from burning fossil fuels.

The outcome has been a world-wide  Global Warming / Climate Change policy fiasco.  The irrelevant fiasco continues.  I have therefore become a devout “denier”.  Indeed I do deny that:

  • anything truly adverse is happening in the climate
  • man-kind as a whole can anything about it, except cause major wasted economic resource mainly at expense for the developed world.

So, from being a credulous Believer I have become a Sceptic and thus would now be branded as a “Denier” or better still a “Deplorable Denier”.

About the author

Ed Hoskins had an educational grounding in science subjects. He qualified both as a Dentist at Guys in London in 1962 and as an Architect in Cambridge in 1969, on both occasions with distinction.

Having worked within a research group at the Architecture school, involved with the quantifiable aspects of Building and Planning, Ed was responsible for setting up and running the spin-off company stemming from that group, Applied Research of Cambridge Ltd. In 1969 it was one of the earliest spin-off companies of the “Cambridge Phenomenon”.

The company produced Computer Aided Design software products for Architecture and Engineering and for Geographic Information Systems. The markets for its software were world-wide.

Since retirement Ed has taken an interest in the Global Warming / Climate Change question and has published several notes quantifying various aspects of the questions raised and remedies being pursued. He uses his abilities in business planning and presentation to make contributions that are hopefully useful and accessible at a layman’s / politicians’ level [42].

This note makes use of illustrations and references much of Ed’s earlier analyses and may make a useful contribution to thinking about future policies.

Ed’s views are not politically correct.

Even so they raise questions which should be fully addressed when making government policy towards UK Energy and Climate Change by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy.

Introduction to edmhdotme  pages

This group of illustrated essays poses some of the central questions and solutions about the Man-made Global warming assertion. It also questions the due diligence with which they have been confirmed as irrefutable.

Man-made Global Warming Advocates and Alarmists only ever emphasise the catastrophe that awaits the world in the future as a result of Man-made Global warming.

But the obverse is more likely to be true.

Increased levels of CO2 and a rather warmer, probably wetter, climate within natural limits will continue to bring real benefits to the biosphere and mankind just as they did in the previous 20th century and during the warmer periods of our current benign Holocene epoch.

The world could well survive having additional areas available for viable, well fertilised, agriculture.

Instead  the short spurt in global warming at the end of the last century has given rise to and has been exaggerated as the

“Great Global Warming Scare”

However this has been:

  • an entirely natural process
  • well within normal limits
  • fortunately truly beneficial.

Economic studies now show that there would still be net benefit to the biosphere and mankind in warming up to a further 2°C.  See

http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/climate_change.pdf

But further warming may be not now be occurring at all.  So it has become clear that any attempts at man-made climate control by reduction of CO2 emissions to reduce global temperatures are ineffective and will be futile.

http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/SCM_Global_Warming_Summary_2015_09.pdf

The UN IPCC, because their predictions are not now supported in nature have been forced to change their nomenclature from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”.  They have simply extrapolated the warming that certainly occurred towards the end of the 20th century as if it was going to continue unabated.  However there has been a hiatus in their anticipated inexorable world temperature increase for about the last 20 years.

So Climate can Change both ways either warmer or colder.

But now any adverse weather event, even cold events, such as the recent winters in the Eastern United States, can be ascribed to “Climate Change” by alarmists and blamed on the CO2 production of Man-kind.

Nonetheless all Warmist policy recommendations are only ever intended to control excessive Global Overheating by the attempted reduction of Man-made Carbon Dioxide, CO2 emissions.

This has to be the BLINDING and ILLOGICAL PARADOX of the Catastrophic Alarmist / Warmist position.   

Control of Man-made CO2 can do nothing to ameliorate a cooling world.

This site provides a series of short illustrated and referenced articles on the subject of “Global Warming” and / or “Climate Change”.  The notes are intended to work at the level of an intelligent layman with graphics to clearly illustrate the points involved.  These are the references:

Effective CO2 emissions reduction: 2016

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/effective-co2-emission-reduction/

Comparing electricity generation in six key nations ostensibly in Renewable transition

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/comparing-electricity-generation-statistics-in-six-nations/

UK Energy and Climate Change Policy

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/uk-energy-and-climate-change-policy-2/

The Holocene context for Global Warming Alarmism

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/the-holocene-context-for-anthropogenic-global-warming-2/

The diminishing influence of increasing carbon dioxide CO2 on temperature

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/the-diminishing-influence-of-increasing-carbon-dioxide-co2-on-temperature/

Renewable Energy: the question of Capacity / Load factor: 2016

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/renewable-energy-the-question-of-capacity/

Man-made CO2 emissions 1965 – 2015

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/man-made-co2-emissions-1965-2015/

Estimates of comparative costs for weather dependent Renewables in Europe

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/lifetime-costs-for-renewable-energy-in-europe/

Some supporting notes:

The temperature context

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/12/the-temperature-context/

The record of recent man-made CO2 emissions, 1965-2014, accounting for the under-reporting of Chinese emissions

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/man-made-co2-emissions-1965-2014-accounting-for-the-under-reporting-of-chinese-co2-emissions/

Renewable energy Costs and Performance in Europe 2014

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/european-renewable-energy-costs-and-performance-2014/

Renewable Energy: the Question of Capacity

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/renewable-energy-the-question-of-capacity/

The outcome of the Obama-China climate deal

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/charting-the-probable-outcome-of-the-obama-china-climate-deal-2/

 Estimating Lifetime costs for Renewable energy in Europe

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/lifetime-costs-for-renewable-energy-in-europe/

Charting the World’s developmental deficit

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/29/charting-the-worlds-developmental-deficit/

Charting the Worlds energy sources

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/29/charting-the-worlds-energy-sources/

The significance of carbon dioxide CO2

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/the-significance-of-carbon-dioxide-co2/

Renewable Energy costs and effectiveness in Germany

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2015/06/05/renewable-energy-costs-and-effectiveness-in-germany/

Charting-the-effectiveness-of-renewable-energy-in-Europe

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2015/01/22/charting-the-effectiveness-of-renewable-energy-in-europe/

Official adjustments to temperature records worldwide

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/10/06/official-adjustments-to-temperature-records-worldwide/

Growth of renewable energy installation in the USA UK and Germany

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/growth-of-renewable-energy-installation-in-the-usa-uk-and-germany/

Renewable energy solar and wind power compared with gas fired generation USA Germany UK

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/24/renewable-energy-solar-and-wind-power-compared-with-gas-fired-generation-usa-germany-uk/

4 thoughts on “On a personal note

  1. Pingback: Ed Hoskins: Capital Cost and Production Effectiveness of Renewable Energy in Europe – the Data | Tallbloke's Talkshop

  2. sonja Christiansen

    I agree…..but this leaves the fundamental question for social scientists and especially political ones: Who gains from the dangerous- man-made warming idea that can be-defeated by ‘decarbonisation’? Why the CO2 hypothesis been picked with so much enthusiasm by the global and assorted national ‘elites’ ? These elites are not stupid and probably know all that there is a lot of doubt. Political scientists should ask who benefits from the climate threat (warming- never cooling), and then have a closer look at the science debate and how this is funded. Very few people do so. I wonder why? I have written on this subject for years, with very little support. There is a ridiculous hierarchy of esteem in our research and education systems: C02 and C can be measured and even ‘captured’. and , in places, replaced.

    Reply

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