Green Thinking has a zealous purpose to eliminate Western Man-made Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions derived from the use of fossil fuels nominally to “save the world from overheating”.
Green Thinking has a determined and illogical obsession that any extra Man-made CO2 is bound to cause massive and disruptive catastrophic Global overheating. This obsession has been ruthlessly promoted by educators, researchers, much of the science establishment and politicians throughout the Western world for the last 30 years.
It is a fallacy.
- Green Thinking tries not admit that the bulk of the Greenhouse effect ~90% or more is attributable to Water vapour in the atmosphere.
- Green Thinking fails to understand that CO2 is only a minor player in the Greenhouse effect at most less than 10% of the total ~+33°C.
- Green Thinking carefully ignores all influences on the Earth’s climate other than atmospheric CO2 and only focusses on Man-made CO2 emissions, (according to the mandate of the IPCC): for example, it discounts the influence of the Sun’s energy output and the effects of planetary mechanics.
- Green Thinking simply forgets that atmospheric CO2 is the essential molecule for photosynthesis and thus the CO2 in the atmosphere is the foundation for all life on earth.
- Green Thinking fails to understand and appreciate that the World is still in a state of CO2 starvation when compared to its past, when Plants evolved: there was no runaway warming from the high levels (<20 times) of atmospheric CO2 in those earlier times.
- Green Thinking fails to understand that more CO2 in the atmosphere gives rise to more abundant life on Earth and that any reasonable warming would be a real benefit both for the Biosphere and for Man-kind: horticulturalists add CO2 to their heated Greenhouses, (at ~3-4 times current CO2 levels 1200 – 1500 ppmv), to enhance plant productivity.
- Green Thinking continually tries to conflate Man-made CO2 emissions with all other types of real pollution, toxic effluents, plastics, particulate matter, un-scrubbed sulphur dioxide, etcetera, forgetting that CO2 from any source is equally well absorbed by Photosynthesis.
- Green Thinking is thus in error when it insists that atmospheric CO2, whether Man-made or Natural is pollutant.
- Green Thinking supports Carbon Capture and Storage, (CCS). Carbon Capture and Storage can only be seen as a costly and energy expensive way to try to throw away relatively insignificant quantities of useful plant food.
- Green Thinking does not understand the well-established physics, (accepted by IPCC authors), which shows that there is no straight-line relationship between future CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and a possible increase in temperature and that the temperature enhancing effect of added atmospheric CO2 diminishes logarithmically as concentration increases.
- Green Thinking does not understand that the warming effect of any added CO2 is now so close to saturation that any extra CO2 in the atmosphere can only ever give rise to very limited further warming. A low estimate of Climate Sensitivity for the doubling atmospheric CO2 from 410 ppmv up to 820ppmv is only ~+0.35°C.
- Green Thinking ignores the fact that because of the logarithmic diminution effect doubling CO2 from the present level to ~800 ppmv can now only cause a reduction of radiation to space of ~3W/m2, (a ~1% reduction in the CO2 temperature effect).
- Green Thinking tries to emphasise that the other potential Greenhouse gasses, whether natural or Man-made, Methane and Nitrogen Oxides, will also cause extra warming, however these gases remain at very low concentrations in the atmosphere and are virtually irrelevant: they react with Oxygen in the atmosphere and dissipate rapidly.
- Green Thinking forgets that last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD was the coldest millennium of our present benign but declining warm Holocene interglacial epoch.
- Green Thinking ignores the fact that Greenland Ice Cores show that since the temperature “Optimum” of the current benign warm Holocene interglacial epoch 8000 years ago each temperature high point:
was colder than each previous high point.
- Green Thinking ignores the fact that for the last 3 millennia, since a tipping point around ~1000BC, Global cooling has been progressing at a much higher rate than during the earlier Holocene epoch that encompassed its highest temperature ~8000 years ago at the Holocene Climate Optimum.
- Green thinking has effectively expunged the idea that a real climate catastrophe would occur with any immediate minor Global cooling, leading to the loss of agricultural productivity and jeopardising both agriculture supporting the growing world population and the Biosphere: in 2020 and 2021 there was already evidence of significant crop failures due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere.
- Green thinking forgets that most agricultural losses from any recent cooling have been substantially offset, so far, by the additional fertilisation effect of higher levels of atmospheric CO2.
- Thus, Green Thinking has effectively eliminated all responsible consideration of the effects on agricultural production of a cooling episode, which could already be facing the World.
- Green Thinking ignores the cogent view, that the World has already entered a longish period, (~50+ years or more), of low Solar activity which will give rise to resultant cooling, as has been observed during previous Solar minima.
- Low Solar activity and cooling will in itself lead to more extreme weather events because the energy differential between the tropics and the poles will be increased.
- Low Solar activity apparently also results in a much more convoluted Jet stream, with excursions both towards and away from the poles: these effects were well evidenced this year by the Texas cold catastrophe, the British Columbia heat wave, German flooding, etc
Such extreme and apparently exceptional jet stream events are set to continue for as long as the reduction of Solar activity continues.
- Green Thinking forgets that the real climate catastrophe will be the coming end of our benign warm Holocene interglacial epoch: the end of the Holocene interglacial is almost overdue and could well arrive with full effect this century or this millennium.
- Green Thinking does not appreciate that the only way that atmospheric CO2 levels will ever truly reduce, (were that desirable), will be during some future ~100,000+ year glaciation as colder oceans eventually reabsorb atmospheric CO2 and marine life sequesters that dissolved CO2 as limestones: this fact alone makes any efforts of by Man-kind to control the Climate by CO2 emission reduction pointless.
- Green Thinking forgets that higher levels of atmospheric CO2, perhaps enhanced somewhat by Man-made CO2 emissions, may be able to protect the World from falling below the terminal CO2 level of ~150 ppmv in a coming glaciation, when all photosynthetic life on earth would be extinguished.
- Green thinking asserts that the use of imported Biomass from cleared forests overseas is beneficial for CO2 emissions reduction, (the timber may regrow in due course), when in fact:
- its immediate CO2 emissions are about 3.5 times that of using Natural Gas for power generation
- forest growth will take 50-100 years to recover
- those instantaneous extra CO2 emissions actually negate any possible CO2 emissions savings that might have been achieved from the investments in Weather-Dependent Renewables, (this certainly applies to the UK and Germany).
- Green Thinking entirely rejects the two realistic ways in which Man-kind might reduce its CO2 emissions without economic collapse:
- the use of natural Gas as opposed to other fossil fuels for power generation
- the use of Nuclear power.
- Green Thinking expects the Nations of the Developing world to renounce all opportunities to advance their well-being. This is very unlikely, especially when sponsored by the Chinese programmes to install Coal-fired electricity generation throughout the underdeveloped world.
- Green thinking prefers to forget that neither the massive increase in Man-made CO2 emissions in the years 2002 – 2012 nor the COVID 19 outbreak with its massive reductions of Man-made CO2 emissions had any discernible inflexion on the Mauna Loa Keeling curve record of CO2 concentration.
There is now an absolute but erroneous conviction amongst Western Governments that the only way to tackle damaging Man-made Global Warming / the Overheating Catastrophe / existential Climate Change is to eliminate Man-made CO2 emissions in the West: the concept of Net Zero.
Their main mechanism, so far, has been the mandating of “Renewable Energy”, using Weather-Dependent Solar and Wind technologies for power generation. These forms of power generation are:
- non-dispatchable, (can’t be turned on when needed).
- intermittent and seasonal, for example the world turning and seasons change attenuate Wind power and Solar Power output.
- low productivity / capacity percentages, when compared to conventional power generation, the long-term average achieved productivity / capacity percentage across the UK is shown below.
- unreliable, resulting in-long term outages, for example established and static low wind weather patterns can occur as have been experienced across Europe in the Summer of 2021. The graphic below shows the Wind-power production from the 22.3 Gigawatts nameplate value of UK installed turbine fleet in April 2021, for the majority of the month productivity / capacity percentage was less that 1/5 of the installed value.
- require massive installations and wide land coverage to collect dilute energy inputs.
The figures above show the overall annual productivity of Weather-Dependent Renewables: the values above smooth out the seriously detrimental productivity lapses that often occur with the establishment of wide spread anti-cyclonic weather conditions over periods of several days. Even so, power generation only affects about a quarter of the assumed CO2 emissions problem.
This post only addresses the ineffectiveness and the comparative costs of the primary “Weather-Dependent Renewable Energy” technologies, Wind power and Solar PV power. There are other more onerous, less effective and more costly courses of action being proposed or implemented, such as ineffective heat pumps for domestic heating, the imposition of electric vehicles, etcetera, to “save the world” from Man-made CO2 emissions.
These estimates show the true scale of the fiscal damage and also the actual failure to curtail actual CO2 emissions achieved by the obsessions of “Green Thinking” by:
- effectively banning fracking for Natural Gas in Europe
- the irrational demonisation and legislative obstruction of Nuclear power generation
- the use of imported Biomass for power generation.
Green Thinking has caused Western Governments to ignore their absolute priority to ensure stable, continuous and cost-effective power supplies for their populations, but instead they seem to have seen as their sole priority the elimination of fossil fuels to avoid a possible and probably beneficial, Global warming effect far in the future.
Western Governments having bought into the Green Thinking that Catastrophic Man-made Global Warming is an immediate and existential Global threat that they, even when faced with simple but devastatingly and clearly wasteful calculations, are nonetheless still determined to assume a position of “wilful ignorance” and a stance of “don’t confuse me with facts, we are saving the world”.
An excellent way to undermine Western economies is to render their power generation unreliable and expensive. That objective of Green thinking is progressively being achieved by Government policy but without popular mandate throughout the Western world.
The true beneficiaries of Green Thinking are Russia and China, who are obviously unconcerned about the Western belief in an overheating Climate Catastrophe. Those Nations have done much to engender idea of the Global Warming catastrophe by supporting the propaganda of “Western environmental” NGOs. As a result China and Russia are gaining ever more destructive control over Western Nations and Society.
So, spending any effort, for emotional reasons and in the quasi-religious belief in the evil of Western Man-made CO2 emissions:
- without full due diligence
- without true cost benefit analysis
- without consideration of any alternative scientific views
- without detailed engineering consideration and unbiased costing for any proposed technical solutions,
let alone at GDP scale costs, trying to stop the UK’s 1.0% or the EU’s 8.6% of something that has not been happening for 3 millennia has to be monumentally ill-considered.
Green Thinking is a contradiction in terms.
Green thinking has made it impossible for Western politicians to carry out the wise and financially prudent policy by admitting that:
- Climate Change due to Man-made CO2 emissions is a minor problem amongst many other Global priorities
- any active policies are hardly capable of changing the Climate at all, especially if actions are unilateral and/or only supported by a minority of developed Nations
- the prudent policy is to:
- have the courage to resist Green clamouring
- accept that Weather-Dependent Renewables are uneconomic without subsidies
- accept that Weather-Dependent Renewables are unreliable and unable to support the power supply of a developed Nation, (David Mackay)
- rescind all Green oriented policies and expenditures attempting to control Climate Change and
- do nothing.