What if there is no Catastrophic Risk from Man-made Global Warming ?
What if Man-made Climate Change really is a non-problem ?
But what if there is a real Global Cooling Catastrophe in the offing ?
It is the propaganda of Catastrophic Global Warming / Climate Change alarmists that has illogically conflated Carbon Dioxide, the beneficial trace gas that sustains all life on earth and which may cause some minor warming, with real and dangerous pollutants to create the “Great Global Warming Scare / Climate Change Scare / Climate Emergency / etcetera”, with their “we are all going to fry in the next few years narrative”.
The temperature progression of Greenland Ice Cores shows that each high point in the past of the current benign Holocene epoch, (Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), has been colder than its previous high point. For the last 3 millennia since 1000BC, cooling has been progressing at a rate considerably higher than during the earlier Holocene that encompassed the Holocene Climate Optimum. As the Holocene epoch is now some ~11,000 years old, previous experience shows that it should be ending very soon on a geological time scale. It is therefore much more likely that the Holocene will continue to cool at at least the current rate, if it is not to terminate suddenly.
The role of Atmospheric CO2
To establish realistic policy the following points about man-made CO2 emissions need to be recognised:
- The warming Greenhouse effect is essential to all life on earth, without it at ~+33°C planet Earth would be a very cold and inhospitable place indeed.
- Most of the greenhouse effect, (more than ~90% – 95%) arises from water as vapour and clouds in the atmosphere.
- The role of water as vapour or clouds is fully acknowledged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, even though they concentrate their alarmist views on Man-made CO2 emissions. The adverse role of Man-made CO2 emissions and their climate impact is their mandate after all.
(page 666 of the IPCC assessment.)
- Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide CO2 is not pollutant.
- The world needs its atmospheric CO2 for the survival and fertilisation of plant life.
- Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide is the very stuff of life.
- Atmospheric CO2 is essential for PHOTOSYNTHESIS, it supports all life on earth.
At about half the current atmospheric concentration of CO2, plant Photosynthesis falters and the world soon dies. In comparison with the Geological past the World is now in a period of CO2 starvation, because most of the CO2, once at least 10 times more abundant in the atmosphere at the time when plants evolved, has since been sequestered in the oceans as Calcium Carbonate, limestone.
CO2 concentration came close to that fatally low level, (~150 ppmv), during the last ice age, 110,000BC – 10,000BC. The dangerously low level of atmospheric CO2 could well be exceeded in any coming Ice Age.
Colder oceans absorb more CO2 and ocean life sequesters it as limestone. This is the way our world will eventually die of atmospheric CO2 starvation in a future glacial period.
Increased CO2 concentration promotes plant growth throughout the planet and reduces the water needs of plants. According to NASA, ~15% extra green growth across the planet is already attributed to the relatively recent increase in CO2 concentration.
Man-kind as a whole contributes only a small amount of the CO2 in the Carbon cycle, (~3% per annum), and any extra atmospheric CO2 is rapidly absorbed by the oceans and the biosphere, (with a half-life of ~5 years).
If any extra CO2 were to have some minor warming effect, it would be all to the good. Atmospheric CO2, whether Man-made or mostly naturally occurring, cannot therefore be considered as a pollutant.
The diminishing warming effectiveness of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
There is no straight-line relationship between CO2 concentration and temperature.
The effectiveness of CO2 as a warming Greenhouse gas rapidly diminishes logarithmically as concentration increases.
A concentration of atmospheric CO2 greater than 200 ppmv equivalent to ~77% of CO2’s Greenhouse effectiveness is essential to maintain plant life and thus all life on earth. Plant life will be extinguished with CO2 levels at ~150ppmv.
This logarithmic diminution effect is caused by the overlapping energy wavelengths between greenhouse gasses and water vapour in the atmosphere. An illustration of the CO2 diminution effect with increasing concentrations, can be imagined as if one was painting over a window with successive layers of white paint. The first layer will still be translucent, subsequent layers will progressively reduce the translucency until the window is fully obscured and thereafter any further paint layers can make no further difference to the fact that the window is already fully obscured.
At the current level of ~400 ppmv, ~87% of the effectiveness of CO2 as a Greenhouse gas is exhausted.
At only 13% of CO2 effectiveness remaining, so little of its potential as a greenhouse gas now remains that there is no possibility of ever reaching the “much feared” +2°C temperature rise or more predicted by alarmists, that they think would be caused by future Man-made CO2 emissions.
Alarmists consider that level of +2°C to be catastrophic and sadly they have convinced many of the Western world’s politicians. Economically this is not so, and any increase up-to +2°C would be beneficial. Global temperature would then approach the very abundant period of the previous Eemian interglacial epoch 110,000 years ago, when hippopotami thrived in the Rhine delta.
But now increasing CO2 in the atmosphere can only lead to very limited further warming and certainly not to any catastrophic and any dangerous temperature increase. The simple assumptions supporting this are set out below.
Logarithmic diminution operates as follows:
- 77% of the CO2 greenhouse effect of CO2, 0 – 200 ppmv, is essential to maintain and fertilise plant life and thus all life on earth.
- If it is assumed that all the increase from 300ppmv – 400ppmv is Man-made it would give 4.2% of the Greenhouse effect and a temperature rise of between 0.14°C – 0.07°C
- A possible immediate future rise from 400ppmv – 500ppmv could only give a rise of between 0.11°C – 0.05°C
- A later rise of CO2 from 500ppmv – 1000ppmv, were it to occur, can only give a further rise of between 0.33°C – 0.17°C
- This ignores the statement by the IPCC that only 50% of CO2 increase is Man-made, which would reduce these increased temperature values by half.
- This also ignores the assumption made in Climate models that there is massive positive and escalating feedback from further increasing CO2 emissions: even if such feedback was proven, any continuing warming from CO2 emissions would still remain marginal as a result of the logarithmic diminution effect.
So, it is now likely that the impact of rising CO2 concentrations on global temperature, even at its greatest assessed effectiveness, is not only marginally insignificant for temperature rise but is also in fact beneficial.
To bring the Developing world up to the level of development of China, as indicated by CO2 emissions/head, over the coming decades their CO2 emissions are bound to escalate by at least a further 20 billion tonnes per annum, (+~60%). So all the attempts by Western Nations to control global temperature by the limitation of their own CO2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels can now only ever have marginal or immeasurable further effect.
Therefore, all de-carbonisation efforts by Western Nations are misguided and irrelevant.
Fossil fuels are a gift of nature. They are like a battery of energy created by sunlight several million years ago. They have enabled all the civilised development in the West and will continue to support the growth in prosperity of the developing world. Fossil fuels are not running out. Fracking developments can occur almost anywhere worldwide. For example there are 300 years’ worth of Coal in the UK alone.
Nonetheless there is a coming Climate catastrophe
That catastrophe is the exact opposite of the “we are all going to fry narrative” of the Climate alarmists. It presages a very scary future for Man-kind and the biosphere in the comparatively near-term:
- According to reliable Ice Core records the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD was the coldest of our current Holocene interglacial.
- The world has already been cooling at ~0.14°C / millennium, ~20 times the earlier rate since before Roman times, in fact since ~1000 BC.
- But as can be seen in the rapid Recovery from the last Ice Age, 10,000 years ago, when temperature increased at a rate of ~+2.5°C / millennium, the world’s Climate can change radically and suddenly.
- There is every reason to suspect that the World could meet a similar falling temperature cliff at the coming end of our present Holocene epoch, this century, next century or this millennium, similar to the end of the previous Eemian interglacial.
- The modern short pulse of beneficial Global warming stopped some 20 years ago and recent global temperatures are now stable or declining.
- At 11,000 years old, our congenial, warm Holocene interglacial is coming towards its end. The Holocene has been responsible for all man-kind’s advances, from living in caves to microprocessors.
- The world will very soon, (in geological time), revert to another period of true glaciation, again resulting in mile high ice sheets over New York. With much lower sea levels this was state of Western Europe only 16,000 years ago and gives an idea of what the new Ice Age will look like in due course.
- The prospect of even moving in a cooling direction is something to be truly scared about, both for the biosphere and for man-kind.
- Some immediate cooling now seems likely in the near term, (this century), as a result of the state of the current Solar cycle.
- The weather gets worse in colder times.
- Cold fatally reduces agricultural productivity.
- Cooling is already be becoming evident.
And trying to control Man-made CO2 emissions in the Western world will do nothing to ameliorate the coming Cold Climate Catastrophe.
Spending any effort, for solely emotional and childish reasons, without true cost benefit analysis and without full engineering due diligence, let alone at GDP scale costs, trying to stop the UK’s 1% or the EU’s 10% of something that has not been happening for 3 millennia has to be monumentally ill-advised.
It should be understood that the real reason for Green thinking is to bring Energy and Economic catastrophe to the capitalist Western world.
Green thinking should be regarded as a continuation of the “Cold War”.
Russia, China and India are mocking the way Western governments have been induced by “Green” thinking to promote their policies of abject self-harm at great national cost and to no perceptible benefit. This is supported by Western “useful idiots” (Lenin’s term). Lenin held them in utter contempt.
The developing and Eastern worlds are certainly not going to be meekly following the deranged example of the “virtue signalling” West.